Sudan in danger of self-destructing as conflict and famine reign

Sudan's war is in strategic stalemate. Each side stakes its hopes on a new offensive, a new delivery of weapons, a new political alliance, but neither can gain a decisive advantage.

The losers are the Sudanese people. Every month there are more who are hungry, displaced, despairing.

The Sudan armed forces triumphantly announced the recapture of central Khartoum in March.

It broadcast pictures of its leader, Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, walking through the ruins of the capital's Republican Palace, which had been controlled by the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), since the earliest days of the war in April 2023.

The army deployed weapons newly acquired from Egypt, Turkey and other Middle Eastern countries including Qatar and Iran. But its offensive quickly stalled.

On this occasion, as before, progress was blocked because Saudi Arabia and the UAE could not agree.

Diplomats acknowledge that Sudan's war is an African problem that needs an Arab solution.

The road to peace in Khartoum runs through Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo.

For Egypt, the big question is whether Burhan is able to distance himself from Sudan's Islamists.

Under Bashir, the Islamist movement was in power for 30 years, and established a formidable and well-funded organisation, that still exists.

The Islamists mobilised combat brigades that were key to the army's recent victory in Khartoum.

Egypt's President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi supports Burhan and wants him to sideline the Islamists, but knows that he cannot push the Sudanese general too far.

This question takes on added salience with Israel's attack on Iran and the Islamists' fear that they are facing an irreversible defeat.

The other big question is whether the UAE will step back from supporting Hemedti.

After the RSF lost Khartoum, some hoped that Abu Dhabi might seek a compromise - but within weeks the RSF was deploying drones that appear to have come from the UAE.

The UAE is also facing strategic challenges, as it is an outlier in the Arab world in its alignment with Israel.

No-one wants to see Sudan divided. But the reality of the war points towards a de facto partition between bitterly opposed warring camps.